Research article: Gopalaswamy, A. M., Karanth, K. U., Delampady, M., & Stenseth, N. C. (2019). How Sampling-Based Overdispersion Undermines India’s Tiger Monitoring Orthodoxy. bioRxiv, 708628.

Blog author: Arjun Menon

Key highlights:

  • India’s tiger population estimates are based on an approach that relies heavily on counting tiger signs like tracks and feces, which can be highly variable.
  • The current method tends to overestimate tiger numbers due to issues like inconsistent detection and sampling errors.
  • Survey results sometimes contradict established ecological principles, leading to puzzling population growth patterns.
  • There is a call for improved monitoring methods designed with clear scientific goals and less influenced by social or political pressures.
  • Reliable monitoring is essential not only for accurate tiger numbers but also for effective conservation planning.

India is home to more wild tigers than any other country; it is a global conservation success story. However, this research paper finds that current tiger survey methods may give an incomplete picture of how tigers are really doing. The researchers explain that agencies often face pressure to show rising tiger numbers, but the way tigers are counted can cause confusing results, such as reporting sudden jumps or declines in tiger populations that do not match what scientists expect in nature.​

At the heart of the problem is how tiger surveys work: instead of marking every individual tiger, field teams often look for indirect signs like footprints and droppings. These signs are then used to estimate tiger numbers across vast regions. While practical in remote forests, the study points out that factors like terrain, weather, and visibility make these signs hard to track reliably. As a result, official counts may appear to rise or fall sharply, even when real tiger numbers are more stable.​

The study encourages conservationists and wildlife managers to rethink their strategies. It calls for new counting methods that are easier to check, reduce guesswork, and focus on local tiger populations, especially in places where tigers are most at risk. This approach will facilitate the generation of more robust data for everyone involved in tiger conservation, from scientists to local communities, and inspire more effective policies to preserve critical habitats.

Importantly, counting tigers accurately is about more than just numbers. It means stronger protection for forests, cleaner water, and safer spaces for many other wild animals and plants. With better survey methods, India can lead the world in both tiger conservation and sharing hope for wildlife everywhere.

To access the original article, click here.

Keywords: Tiger monitoring, wildlife conservation, population surveys, India tigers, ecological monitoring, conservation science, animal population accuracy, wildlife protection